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As we already know, especially with my keen sense of mathematical evaluations, 3 teams have officially clinched the playoffs:

Peoria Rivermen
Pensacola Ice Flyers
Huntsville Havoc

Friday's games have some serious playoff implications attached.

Let's analyze some key match-ups that could either make or break a team's season.

Birmingham @ Knoxville: This match-up could essentially could seriously hinder the Bulls' playoff chances, should Roanoke and Mississippi finish on a stronger note. The playoff clinching is based on Birmingham, despite them being in the playoffs, due to the Bulls having a current maximum points possible of 61. Should the Bears win, this will give them 62 points and essentially guarantee their berth into the postseason, for a chance at another title.

Macon @ Peoria: This match is mostly about Macon grabbing a playoff spot. All the Mayhem would need to do is lose in either overtime or a shootout to gain 1 point and clinch a berth, despite what Birmingham does. On the Rivermen side, this would put them one game closer to clinching the regular season title, especially if Pensacola loses in Evansville, considering Pensacola's elimination number from the title is at 6. Remember, with every Peoria win and Pensacola loss, the number for Pensacola decreases by 2. So, in as little as three games, Peoria could clinch the RS title.

Roanoke @ Huntsville: This is not as serious as the previous two, however, a Huntsville win, combined with a Pensacola loss, puts Huntsville that much closer to being a team to write its own playoff destiny. A Roanoke loss could put the Dawgs in a sticky situation where they can not afford to lose many more games before being eliminated. Stuck in a tie with Mississippi, the final playoff position could come down to the wire. On the other hand, the loss combined with Mississippi winning in Fayetteville could hamper the Dawgs.

These are just a few implications that are on tap for the next slate of games scheduled for Friday.

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Congratulations to the :IceBears: and the :Mayhem: for clinching their playoff berths.

Current Playoff Teams:

:Rivermen:
:IceFlyers:
:Havoc:
:Mayhem:
:IceBears:

Tonight's games will be a lighter load for playoff berths, as only 1 team has the ability to officially clinch, the :Thunderbolts:.

Evansville is currently sitting at 56 points on the season, with 6 games remaining. Evansville will host Pensacola again tonight, after taking a 4-1 win Friday night. Evansville can officially clinch a playoff berth with a win, and a regulation loss by Birmingham.

Side Note:

Wins for Roanoke and Mississippi, combined with the Birmingham loss, will put both teams closer to clinching their playoff berths.

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20 minutes ago, SJSharkies4ever said:

Tonight's games will be a lighter load for playoff berths, as only 1 team has the ability to officially clinch, the :Thunderbolts:.

Evansville is currently sitting at 56 points on the season, with 6 games remaining. Evansville will host Pensacola again tonight, after taking a 4-1 win Friday night. Evansville can officially clinch a playoff berth with a win, and a regulation loss by Birmingham.

Only 1 team, but I think we can all agree it's the most important team? Right?

:2thumbsup:

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40 minutes ago, ShaunS said:

Only 1 team, but I think we can all agree it's the most important team? Right?

:2thumbsup:

LOL! Fitting for a second year team to do a complete turnaround.

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9 hours ago, SJSharkies4ever said:

Congratulations to the :IceBears: and the :Mayhem: for clinching their playoff berths.

Current Playoff Teams:

:Rivermen:
:IceFlyers:
:Havoc:
:Mayhem:
:IceBears:

Tonight's games will be a lighter load for playoff berths, as only 1 team has the ability to officially clinch, the :Thunderbolts:.

Evansville is currently sitting at 56 points on the season, with 6 games remaining. Evansville will host Pensacola again tonight, after taking a 4-1 win Friday night. Evansville can officially clinch a playoff berth with a win, and a regulation loss by Birmingham.

Side Note:

Wins for Roanoke and Mississippi, combined with the Birmingham loss, will put both teams closer to clinching their playoff berths.

I think you might be psychic.  Everything you say could happen comes true!

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It's a bit early for this but having watched MRK play the last 2 nights it wouldn't surprise me a bit if the #1 seed picked MRK for the 1st round in the challenge.  Assuming no changes to the current top 8 the #1 would be looking at KNX, EVN, RNK and MRK as choices.  Tyler Green is average at best in goal and their D just gave up 8 goals in 2 games to a team that averages 2.6 a game.  No matter where HSV finishes they will not pick KNX. Just look at the season head to head to know why.  Given the fact Roanoke may have to play all games on the road I can see # 2 selecting them over KNX and EVN. That just might to come back to bite them.  I wouldn't want to be a coach and have to choose between ROA, EVN and KNX for my 1st round opponent.  I think this Challnge thing is a great idea as the commish has often said.

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10 hours ago, Greg81102 said:

I think you might be psychic.  Everything you say could happen comes true!

Lol Greg! I have the gift!!

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On 3/25/2018 at 8:40 AM, Make Marky GM said:

It's a bit early for this but having watched MRK play the last 2 nights it wouldn't surprise me a bit if the #1 seed picked MRK for the 1st round in the challenge.  Assuming no changes to the current top 8 the #1 would be looking at KNX, EVN, RNK and MRK as choices.  Tyler Green is average at best in goal and their D just gave up 8 goals in 2 games to a team that averages 2.6 a game.  No matter where HSV finishes they will not pick KNX. Just look at the season head to head to know why.  Given the fact Roanoke may have to play all games on the road I can see # 2 selecting them over KNX and EVN. That just might to come back to bite them.  I wouldn't want to be a coach and have to choose between ROA, EVN and KNX for my 1st round opponent.  I think this Challnge thing is a great idea as the commish has often said.

“Stone walls do not a prison make, nor iron bars a cage’ Richard Lovelace 1642.

Two games do not a season make. You may well be right in your assessment. I appreciate your interest and opinion,  but MRK’s problems this year are more about not scoring. The 166 goals allowed is the best of the non seeded teams.

I imagine Trudel has a pretty good idea which team is the best match-up for his team. And this is a business. Playoffs  aren’t really all that profitable so travel costs will probably come into play.

I’m just hoping the Kings make the playoffs. Once they start anything is possible.

 

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On 3/25/2018 at 8:40 AM, Make Marky GM said:

It's a bit early for this but having watched MRK play the last 2 nights it wouldn't surprise me a bit if the #1 seed picked MRK for the 1st round in the challenge.  Assuming no changes to the current top 8 the #1 would be looking at KNX, EVN, RNK and MRK as choices.  Tyler Green is average at best in goal and their D just gave up 8 goals in 2 games to a team that averages 2.6 a game.  No matter where HSV finishes they will not pick KNX. Just look at the season head to head to know why.  Given the fact Roanoke may have to play all games on the road I can see # 2 selecting them over KNX and EVN. That just might to come back to bite them.  I wouldn't want to be a coach and have to choose between ROA, EVN and KNX for my 1st round opponent.  I think this Challnge thing is a great idea as the commish has often said.

I was just posting along these lines in another thread.

The biggest question is whether or not the Bulls make it into the playoffs. It's crucial because they're simply the hottest team in the league since the beginning of February. 13-5 with a 5-1 record against Peoria and Pensacola. I simply cannot imagine either of the top seeds picking to face them. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Birmingham's currently back 3 points with one more game played than Roanoke or Mississippi. They've also dropped their last 3 games. So do they have a chance?

At first glance, it might seem bleak, but there's a lot more opportunity here than you might expect. 

Birmingham will play @PEN(#2), @PEN(#2), MAC(#4), HUN(#3).

Roanoke plays @FAY then #1 ranked Peoria four times. Twice at home twice on the road.

Mississippi will play @PEN then finish at home with 3x HUN and FAY.

All three teams are playing really difficult schedules to close the season, and while I find the Bulls run exciting I have to be realistic. I expect ROA and MRK to both get wins against FAY, meaning the Bulls will have to overcome at least 5 points in 4 games. It doesn't seem likely, but then going 13-5 wouldn't have been very high on my list of things happening either.

 

I think Evansville could benefit from Birmingham not making the playoffs. As I've previously mentioned I wouldn't dare pick them with the #1 or #2 spots. In the world where they're in that leaves ROA/MRK then Evansville for the Rivermen. Peoria and Evansville have played a 13 times with the Bolts holding a 2-8-3 record against them. It's a good mark. If you wanted to dig for a reason why Peoria might avoid them... seven of the games were decided by one goal (2 more had empty netters at the end), so the games weren't usually too far apart.

The Thunderbolts have managed to win the season series against Pensacola and split with Huntsville so those might be more attractive matchups on the EVV side.

 

Quote

Playoffs  aren’t really all that profitable so travel costs will probably come into play.

I'm not sold on the idea that the marginal difference in cost between opponents will be a real factor. We're talking about a single road game for the higher seed. I'd like to think a GM will see the benefit of playing another round of home games will far outweigh any travel pain.

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Okay everyone, this is it! Pensacola leads the series over Peoria 3-0-1. What does this mean? Peoria has 75 points, and Pensacola's maximum points possible is 76. All Peoria has to do is defeat the Rail Yard Dawgs Friday night and they will officially clinch the regular season title.

Also, a RiverKings win Friday night and a Bulls loss will officially clinch the RiverKings a playoff berth.

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Where I disagree with most others on remaining schedule is that I think Roanoke has an easy road. I feel like the prevailing idea is that Peoria will blitz the Dawgs with all of their might, but why? They’ll have #1 locked up soon and nothing to play for. These last 4 are a scouting trip to find out if they want a 3-game extension with Roanoke to start their cup run. I fully expect the Dawgs to at least split the 4 and Bulls to lose 1, thus B-Ham is out.

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48 minutes ago, Theoriginalalex said:

Where I disagree with most others on remaining schedule is that I think Roanoke has an easy road. I feel like the prevailing idea is that Peoria will blitz the Dawgs with all of their might, but why? They’ll have #1 locked up soon and nothing to play for. These last 4 are a scouting trip to find out if they want a 3-game extension with Roanoke to start their cup run. I fully expect the Dawgs to at least split the 4 and Bulls to lose 1, thus B-Ham is out.

As we get closer to everything being locked up the possibility of "effort" looms large. When Mississippi got the win against Pensacola that really hurt the Bulls chances in my mind. I'm still assuming that both MRK and ROA will get wins over FAY. I don't know who holds the tiebreaker, but to avoid it the Bulls will have to win out and River Kings would have to lose all their other games. I don't like those odds.

Roanoke would be the more likely target from the math, but you're right about Peoria not needing the points. On the other hand, I don't get the vibe from JG Tru that he's the kind of guy who gives a damn about that. While you might not see the best Peoria could ever be, I wouldn't expect to see a poor effort. My bet would be 3-1 series for Peoria. And like with MRK, if that's how things shake out I don't like the Bulls chances of catching up.

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Here we are folks, ready for another weekend of hockey, and without any surprise, this Friday's games do have some playoff implications attached.

Just a refresher on who is in:

:Rivermen:
:IceFlyers:
:Havoc:
:Mayhem:
:IceBears:
:Thunderbolts:

6 teams are officially in and Mississippi and Roanoke are racing to a photo finish for the final spots, as the Bulls are looming on thin ice outside staring in.

There are some games that are crucial Friday night that will help to set the tone going into April.

Peoria @ Roanoke: The Rivermen can clinch the regular season title outright with a victory over the Dawgs. Should the Rivs lose n overtime or a shootout, they can still claim the regular season title with a loss in any fashion for the Ice Flyers.

For Roanoke, a win, combined with a regulation loss by the Bulls, can officially clinch their playoff spot.

Huntsville @ Mississippi: The R1iverKings can clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Havoc, provided the Bulls lose in any fashion.

Birmingham @ Pensacola: The Bulls are in a bad spot this weekend, in which they can see their postseason berth in dire jeopardy and go up in smoke.

A regulation loss for the Bulls, combined with wins from Mississippi and Roanoke, can officially eliminate the Bulls. On the other hand, should Birmingham win, or lose in extra time, then they survive another night.

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It looks like the 5th - 8th place group is set. And Huntsville has locked in 4th place.

The only question that will have to be answered tomorrow night is who ends up 2nd & 3rd between Pensacola & Macon.

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8 hours ago, MacGuy said:

It looks like the 5th - 8th place group is set. And Huntsville has locked in 4th place.

The only question that will have to be answered tomorrow night is who ends up 2nd & 3rd between Pensacola & Macon.

Actually, it is interesting right now.

Pensacola needs 1 point to mathematically secure 2nd

Macon needs 1 point to secure 3rd

Knoxville needs 1 point to secure 5th

Evansville needs 1 point to secure 6th

1st is locked in with Peoria

8th is locked in with Roanoke

5th is basically locked in with Knoxville

4th is basically locked in by Huntsville

Mississippi can tie Evansville but would finish 6th due to more wins

Macon can finish 2nd if Pensacola loses due to HTH advantage

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24 minutes ago, SJSharkies4ever said:

Actually, it is interesting right now. ...

Yeah, the kind of "interesting" that can be rendered moot by the new "You Pick 'Em" playoff seeding scheme.  :huh:

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1 minute ago, JMC-STL said:

Yeah, the kind of "interesting" that can be rendered moot by the new "You Pick 'Em" playoff seeding scheme.  :huh:

:beat:

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As the old saying goes: "Don't pummel the messenger with a folding chair ... unless you're on a WWE fan site."  :popcorn:

  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, SJSharkies4ever said:

Pensacola needs 1 point to mathematically secure 2nd

Macon needs 1 point to secure 3rd

Shouldn't that be...?

Pensacola needs 1 point with a regulation loss by Macon or 2 points with an overtime loss by Macon to secure 2nd

Macon needs a regulation loss by Pensacola or 1 point with an overtime loss by Pensacola to secure 2nd

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One of the aspects the top 4 teams must be looking at is their record against potential opponents.
This shows the results of all games since Jan. 1, with results of at least a 5 point differential in BOLD.

Peoria
vs KNX - OTW
vs EVN - SOW, L, W, W, W, W, L, W
vs MRK - W, W, W, W, SOL
vs RNK - W, W, W

Macon
vs KNX - OTL, W, L, W
vs EVN - OTW, OTW
vs MRKW, L, L, L
vs RNK - W, W, L, L, W

Pensacola
vs KNX - W
vs EVN - W, W, L, L
vs MRK - L, L
vs RNK - SOL, W, L, W

Huntsville
vs KNX - L, OTW, L, OTL, OTL, L
vs EVN - OTW, W
vs MRK - W, L, W, W, L, OTL
vs RNK - L, SOL, OTL

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Not counting any other factors, of course...

As attractive an opponent Evansville might be to Peoria, that is the only team the Rivermen lost in regulation to in 2018.
It seems like Macon doesn't have a great record against any of the 4.
Pensacola only has a winning record against Knoxville - and that continues from the first half of the season.
And Huntsville just gets whoever is left - though they might hope to get Evansville.

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7 hours ago, JMC-STL said:

As the old saying goes: "Don't pummel the messenger with a folding chair ... unless you're on a WWE fan site."  :popcorn:

LOL

:deadhorse:

Better?

6 hours ago, MacGuy said:

Shouldn't that be...?

Pensacola needs 1 point with a regulation loss by Macon or 2 points with an overtime loss by Macon to secure 2nd

Macon needs a regulation loss by Pensacola or 1 point with an overtime loss by Pensacola to secure 2nd

Nevermind. I made a mistake on my standings. I thought Birmingham won 8-7 when it was in fact 7-0 Macon. My eyes ain't what they use to be.

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18 minutes ago, SJSharkies4ever said:

... Nevermind. I made a mistake on my standings. I thought Birmingham won 8-7 when it was in fact 7-0 Macon. My eyes ain't what they use to be.

Oh, yeah, you'd be a great coaching candidate for the Marksmen next season.  :rolleyes:

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